Data
Our measurements from Signal Forge's findings: how far ahead of release each model was detected, and the prices of released models.
AI API pricing: calculate the cost of a finished task
We saw them coming
Median time from our first mention to release, across 11 launches. Includes reports and rumours, not verified predictions. Claude Fable 5.2 was first mentioned 61 days before release.
Median lead: 12 days
| Model | Reported | Released | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 4 Carbon | 12 days | ||
| Claude Fable 5.2 | 61 days | ||
| Gemini 4 Argon | 12 days | ||
| Claude Opus 5.5 | 1 day | ||
| GPT-6 Sol | 15 days | ||
| GPT-6 Luna | 15 days | ||
| Grok 4.7 | 3 days | ||
| GPT-6 Astra | 27 days | ||
| Claude Fable 5.1 | 5 days | ||
| Claude Opus 5 | 13 days | ||
| GPT-5.6 Sol | 12 days |
Detected by Forge
- Models seen early
- 2
- Median lead
- 12 days
- Longest lead
- 12 days
Days between Signal Forge's first detection and the developer's release, with the latest releases first.
| Model | Reported | Sighting | Released | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Gemini 4 Carbon Google | only in posts or press | 12 days | ||
| Gemini 4 ArgonGoogle | only in posts or press | 12 days | ||
Claude Fable 5.2 Anthropic | only in posts or press | On release date | ||
| Claude Mythos 5.2Anthropic | only in posts or press | On release date | ||
GPT Image 2.6 Sunburst OpenAI | — | On release date | ||
| GPT-6 RosalindOpenAI | — | On release date | ||
| GPT-6.1 TerraOpenAI | only in posts or press | On release date | ||
| Claude Haiku 5.5Anthropic | only in posts or press | On release date | ||
| Claude Sonnet 5.5Anthropic | only in posts or press | On release date | ||
| Claude Opus 5.5Anthropic | only in posts or press | On release date | ||
| GPT-6 LunaOpenAI | only in posts or press | On release date | ||
| GPT-6 SolOpenAI | only in posts or press | On release date | ||
| GPT-Live 1OpenAI | — | On release date | ||
| Gemini 4 HydrogenGoogle | only in posts or press | On release date | ||
| Gemini Decision 1Google | — | On release date | ||
| Gemini Omni 1.2 FlashGoogle | — | On release date | ||
Nano Banana 2.1 Google | — | On release date | ||
| EmbeddingGemma 2Google | — | On release date | ||
| Gemini 3.8 Flash Lite TTSGoogle | — | On release date | ||
| Gemini 3.8 Flash TTSGoogle | — | On release date | ||
| Gemini 3.8 LiveGoogle | only in posts or press | On release date | ||
Meta: Muse Ember Meta | — | On release date | ||
Kimi K3.1 Pro Moonshot | only in posts or press | On release date | ||
MiniMax M3.1 Flash MiniMax | — | On release date | ||
DeepSeek V4.1 Flash 1017 DeepSeek | only in posts or press | On release date | ||
| Muse Spark OpenMeta | — | On release date | ||
Grok Voice 3.0 xAI | — | On release date | ||
| Muse WonderMeta | — | On release date | ||
Qwen-Image-2.1 Turbo Alibaba | — | On release date | ||
Mistral Large 4 Mistral | — | On release date | ||
| Grok 4.7xAI | only in posts or press | On release date | ||
| Qwen Image 2.1Alibaba | — | On release date | ||
| Qwen3.8 Livetranslate Flash RealtimeAlibaba | — | No verified lead | ||
| DeepSeek V4.1 FlashDeepSeek | only in posts or press | On release date | ||
| LFM3 Omni 2BLiquid AI | — | On release date | ||
| FlintRecursive Superintelligence | — | On release date | ||
| Beam 1.0 501B A23BReflection | — | On release date | ||
| GPT-Image-2.5 FlareOpenAI | — | 1 day after release date | ||
| GPT-Image-2.5 SunburstOpenAI | — | 1 day after release date | ||
| Introducing Grok Voice Transcribe 2.0xAI | — | 1 day after release date | ||
| LFM3 1.7B BaseLiquid AI | — | 1 day after release date | ||
| GPT Rosalind ResearchOpenAI | — | 3 days after release date | ||
| Qwen3.8 Omni FlashAlibaba | — | 3 days after release date | ||
Nemotron 3.5 Transcribe 30B A4B NVIDIA | — | 4 days after release date | ||
| GPT-6 AstraOpenAI | only in posts or press | 5 days after release date | ||
| Gemini 3.8 FlashGoogle | only in posts or press | 6 days after release date | ||
| Muse Spark 1.3Meta | only in posts or press | 6 days after release date | ||
| GPT-6.1 SolOpenAI | only in posts or press | 7 days after release date | ||
| Claude Fable 5.1Anthropic | only in posts or press | 7 days after release date | ||
| OlmoEarth v1.3 BaseAi2 | — | 10 days after release date | ||
| LFM2.5 24B A2BLiquid AI | — | 19 days after release date | ||
GLM-5.3 Flash Z.ai | only in posts or press | 21 days after release date | ||
| Gemini 3.8 Live Extended ThinkingGoogle | — | 22 days after release date | ||
| GPT-6 AstraOpenAI | — | 24 days after release date | ||
| GLM-5.3Z.ai | only in posts or press | 28 days after release date | ||
| AstaBrief-8BAi2 | — | 30 days after release date | ||
| Gemini 3.5 Transcribe LiveGoogle | — | 32 days after release date | ||
| Lyria 3.5Google | — | 34 days after release date | ||
| Muse Spark 1.2Meta | only in posts or press | 34 days after release date | ||
| Grok 4.6xAI | only in posts or press | 38 days after release date | ||
| Gemini Omni 1.1 FlashGoogle | — | 41 days after release date | ||
| Gemini 3.5 TranscribeGoogle | only in posts or press | 42 days after release date | ||
| Grok Imagine Image 2.0xAI | — | 42 days after release date | ||
| Claude Opus 5Anthropic | only in posts or press | 46 days after release date | ||
| Kimi K2.8 PreviewMoonshot | — | 48 days after release date | ||
| Qwen3.8 MaxAlibaba | only in posts or press | 49 days after release date | ||
| Gemini 3.6 FlashGoogle | only in posts or press | 50 days after release date | ||
| Kimi K3Moonshot | — | 57 days after release date | ||
| Gemini 3.5 Flash LiteGoogle | only in posts or press | 62 days after release date | ||
| Qwen3.8 Flash NextAlibaba | only in posts or press | 65 days after release date | ||
| Gemini Robotics-ER 2 PreviewGoogle | — | 69 days after release date | ||
| Claude Sonnet 5Anthropic | only in posts or press | 70 days after release date | ||
| GPT-Live-TranscribeOpenAI | — | 71 days after release date | ||
| GPT-TranscribeOpenAI | — | 71 days after release date | ||
| GPT-5.6 LunaOpenAI | only in posts or press | 74 days after release date | ||
| GPT-Realtime-2.1 MiniOpenAI | — | 77 days after release date | ||
| Grok Voice 2.0xAI | — | 77 days after release date | ||
| GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI | only in posts or press | 80 days after release date | ||
| GPT-5.6 TerraOpenAI | only in posts or press | 83 days after release date | ||
| Nano Banana 2 LiteGoogle | only in posts or press | 83 days after release date | ||
| Kimi K2.7 CodeMoonshot | only in posts or press | 88 days after release date | ||
| Claude Fable 5Anthropic | only in posts or press | 91 days after release date | ||
| Grok 4.5xAI | only in posts or press | 91 days after release date | ||
| GLM-5.2Z.ai | only in posts or press | 91 days after release date | ||
| GPT-Realtime-2.1OpenAI | — | 93 days after release date | ||
| Grok 4.3xAI | only in posts or press | 96 days after release date | ||
| MiniMax M3MiniMax | only in posts or press | 108 days after release date | ||
| Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba | only in posts or press | 110 days after release date | ||
| Grok Imagine Video 1.5xAI | — | 113 days after release date | ||
| Claude Opus 4.8Anthropic | only in posts or press | 116 days after release date | ||
| Gemma 4 12B ITGoogle | — | 116 days after release date | ||
| Nano Banana 2Google | only in posts or press | 116 days after release date | ||
| Qwen3.7 MaxAlibaba | only in posts or press | 116 days after release date | ||
| Nano Banana ProGoogle | — | 119 days after release date | ||
| Gemini 3.5 FlashGoogle | only in posts or press | 126 days after release date | ||
| DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek | only in posts or press | 137 days after release date | ||
| Gemini 3.1 Flash LiteGoogle | — | 138 days after release date | ||
| GPT-5.5OpenAI | only in posts or press | 139 days after release date | ||
| Gemini 3.5 FlashGoogle | — | 141 days after release date | ||
| Grok Build 0.1xAI | — | 141 days after release date | ||
| Qwen3.6 35B A3BAlibaba | — | 148 days after release date | ||
| Qwen3.6 27BAlibaba | — | 149 days after release date | ||
| GPT-Realtime-2OpenAI | — | 153 days after release date | ||
| GPT-Realtime-TranslateOpenAI | — | 153 days after release date | ||
| GPT-Realtime-WhisperOpenAI | — | 153 days after release date | ||
| Claude Opus 4.7Anthropic | only in posts or press | 158 days after release date | ||
| GPT-Image-2OpenAI | — | 160 days after release date | ||
| Gemma 4 26B A4B ITGoogle | — | 163 days after release date | ||
| GLM-5.1Z.ai | only in posts or press | 163 days after release date | ||
| GPT-5.5 ProOpenAI | only in posts or press | 167 days after release date | ||
| Qwen3.6 PlusAlibaba | only in posts or press | 168 days after release date | ||
| Gemma 4 31B ITGoogle | — | 173 days after release date | ||
| Gemini Robotics ER-1.6 PreviewGoogle | — | 176 days after release date | ||
| Gemma 4 E2B ITGoogle | — | 180 days after release date | ||
| Gemma 4 E4B ITGoogle | only in posts or press | 180 days after release date | ||
| MiniMax M2.7MiniMax | only in posts or press | 184 days after release date | ||
| Gemma 4 26B A4B ITGoogle | — | 188 days after release date | ||
| GPT-5.4 nanoOpenAI | — | 199 days after release date | ||
| GPT-5.4 MiniOpenAI | only in posts or press | 204 days after release date | ||
| Claude Sonnet 4.6Anthropic | only in posts or press | 204 days after release date | ||
| Qwen3.5 397B A17BAlibaba | — | 204 days after release date | ||
| GPT-Realtime-1.5OpenAI | — | 210 days after release date | ||
| GPT-5.4OpenAI | only in posts or press | 216 days after release date | ||
| GPT-5.4 ProOpenAI | only in posts or press | 216 days after release date | ||
| Claude Opus 4.6Anthropic | only in posts or press | 216 days after release date | ||
| GLM-5Z.ai | only in posts or press | 217 days after release date | ||
| GPT-5.3 CodexOpenAI | only in posts or press | 224 days after release date | ||
| GPT-Audio-1.5OpenAI | — | 226 days after release date | ||
| Qwen3 Coder NextAlibaba | only in posts or press | 230 days after release date | ||
| GPT-5.2-CodexOpenAI | only in posts or press | 273 days after release date | ||
| Gemini 3 Flash PreviewGoogle | only in posts or press | 279 days after release date | ||
| GPT-Image-1.5OpenAI | — | 286 days after release date | ||
| Gemini 2.5 Flash Native Audio Preview 12-2025Google | only in posts or press | 299 days after release date | ||
| GPT-5.2OpenAI | only in posts or press | 300 days after release date | ||
| Claude Opus 4.5Anthropic | — | 301 days after release date | ||
| GPT-5.1-Codex-MaxOpenAI | only in posts or press | 302 days after release date | ||
| Grok 4.1 FastxAI | only in posts or press | 304 days after release date | ||
| GPT-5.1-CodexOpenAI | only in posts or press | 308 days after release date | ||
| Grok 4.1 FastxAI | only in posts or press | 322 days after release date | ||
| GPT-5.1OpenAI | only in posts or press | 323 days after release date | ||
| Veo 3.1 Generate 001Google | — | 324 days after release date | ||
| Claude Haiku 4.5Anthropic | only in posts or press | 341 days after release date | ||
| Claude Sonnet 4.5Anthropic | only in posts or press | 357 days after release date | ||
| Grok 4 FastxAI | only in posts or press | 365 days after release date | ||
| GPT-5 ProOpenAI | only in posts or press | 366 days after release date | ||
| Gemini 2.5 Flash Native Audio Preview 09-2025Google | — | 379 days after release date | ||
| Granite 4.0 1B BaseIBM | — | 380 days after release date | ||
| Granite 4.0 H 1B BaseIBM | — | 380 days after release date | ||
| GPT-5-CodexOpenAI | only in posts or press | 387 days after release date | ||
| GPT-RealtimeOpenAI | — | 405 days after release date | ||
| GPT-5OpenAI | only in posts or press | 426 days after release date | ||
| GPT-5 MiniOpenAI | only in posts or press | 426 days after release date | ||
| GPT-5 nanoOpenAI | — | 426 days after release date | ||
| Grok 4xAI | only in posts or press | 437 days after release date | ||
| O3 Deep ResearchOpenAI | — | 454 days after release date | ||
| O3 ProOpenAI | — | 484 days after release date | ||
| Qwen3 14BAlibaba | — | 497 days after release date | ||
| Qwen3 32BAlibaba | — | 506 days after release date | ||
| Qwen3 8BAlibaba | — | 510 days after release date | ||
| GPT-4.1OpenAI | only in posts or press | 531 days after release date | ||
| GPT-4.1 MiniOpenAI | only in posts or press | 531 days after release date | ||
| GPT-4.1 nanoOpenAI | — | 531 days after release date | ||
| O1 ProOpenAI | — | 567 days after release date | ||
| O3 MiniOpenAI | — | 614 days after release date | ||
| DeepSeek R1DeepSeek | only in posts or press | 625 days after release date | ||
| GPT-4o 2024-11-20OpenAI | — | 686 days after release date | ||
| Claude Haiku 3.5Anthropic | only in posts or press | 702 days after release date | ||
| o1 PreviewOpenAI | — | 755 days after release date | ||
| Structured Outputs in the APIOpenAI | — | 792 days after release date | ||
| GPT-4o MiniOpenAI | — | 801 days after release date | ||
| Llama 3.1 405B InstructMeta | — | 806 days after release date | ||
| GPT-4oOpenAI | — | 877 days after release date | ||
| GPT-4 TurboOpenAI | — | 911 days after release date | ||
| GPT-3.5 Turbo 0125OpenAI | — | 966 days after release date | ||
| GPT-4 Turbo PreviewOpenAI | — | 1066 days after release date | ||
| Qwen3 8 MaxAlibaba | only in posts or press | — | No verified lead | |
| LongCat-2.5Meituan | — | — | No verified lead | |
| Particle-1Particle AI | — | — | No verified lead | |
| MAI-Image-2.7Microsoft | — | — | No verified lead | |
Hy-SimulMT-30B-A3B Tencent | — | — | No verified lead | |
| Hy-SimulMT-30B-A3B-InterleaveTencent | — | — | No verified lead | |
| Mercury 3Inception | — | — | No verified lead | |
| GlimpseElorian | — | — | No verified lead | |
| D1 UltraLiquid AI | — | — | No verified lead | |
| FLUX 3 Image KleinBlack Forest Labs | — | — | No verified lead | |
| Nemotron 3.5 Super VL 120B A12BNVIDIA | — | — | No verified lead | |
| Pareto 26.10Unbiased | — | — | No verified lead | |
| LFM2.5-24B-A2BLiquid AI | — | — | No verified lead | |
| Microsoft-Decision-1Microsoft | — | — | No verified lead | |
| MAI-Voice-2.1Microsoft | — | — | No verified lead | |
| MAI-Voice-2.1-FlashMicrosoft | — | — | No verified lead | |
| MAI-Transcribe-2-StreamingMicrosoft | — | — | No verified lead |
Input / output price · USD / 1M tokens
Released models with a published price, in US dollars per million tokens, cheapest output first.
| Model | Input | Output | Context window | Weights |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemma 4 26B A4B ITGoogle | $0.0675 | $0.225 | 262K | Open |
| Qwen3 14BAlibaba | $0.12 | $0.24 | 41K | Open |
| Qwen3 32BAlibaba | $0.08 | $0.28 | 41K | Open |
| GPT-5 nanoOpenAI | $0.05 | $0.40 | 400K | — |
| GPT-4.1 nanoOpenAI | $0.10 | $0.40 | 1M | — |
| Gemma 4 31B ITGoogle | $0.20 | $0.40 | 262K | Open |
| Particle-1Particle AI | $0.05 | $0.50 | 1M | — |
| GPT-6 LunaOpenAI | $0.10 | $0.50 | 1M | — |
| GLM-5.3 FlashZ.ai | $0.15 | $0.50 | 1M | Open |
| GPT-4o MiniOpenAI | $0.15 | $0.60 | 128K | — |
| MiniMax M3.1 FlashMiniMax | $0.15 | $0.60 | 1M | Open |
| LFM2.5-24B-A2BLiquid AI | $0.05 | $0.70 | 131K | Open |
| Qwen3 Coder NextAlibaba | $0.12 | $0.80 | 128K | Open |
| Qwen3.6 35B A3BAlibaba | $0.10 | $0.90 | 262K | Open |
| GPT-5.6 LunaOpenAI | $0.20 | $1.20 | 1M | — |
| LongCat-2.5Meituan | $0.30 | $1.20 | 1M | — |
| Beam 1.0 501B A23BReflection | $0.40 | $1.20 | 1M | Open |
| GPT-5.4 nanoOpenAI | $0.20 | $1.25 | 400K | — |
| GPT-4.1 MiniOpenAI | $0.40 | $1.60 | 1M | — |
| GPT-5 MiniOpenAI | $0.25 | $2.00 | 400K | — |
| Gemini 3.5 Flash LiteGoogle | $0.30 | $2.50 | 1M | — |
| GlimpseElorian | $0.60 | $3.00 | — | — |
| Qwen3.6 27BAlibaba | $0.32 | $3.20 | 262K | Open |
| Pareto 26.10Unbiased | $0.80 | $3.20 | 1M | — |
| GLM-5Z.ai | $1.00 | $3.20 | 203K | Open |
| Kimi K2.7 CodeMoonshot | $0.60 | $3.50 | 262K | Open |
| Qwen3.5 397B A17BAlibaba | $0.60 | $3.60 | 262K | Open |
| Gemini 3.6 FlashGoogle | $0.75 | $3.75 | 1M | — |
| Gemini 3.8 FlashGoogle | $0.75 | $3.75 | 1M | — |
| GLM-5.3Z.ai | $1.40 | $4.40 | 1M | Open |
| GLM-5.2Z.ai | $1.40 | $4.40 | 1M | Open |
| GLM-5.1Z.ai | $1.40 | $4.40 | 203K | Open |
| GPT-5.4 MiniOpenAI | $0.75 | $4.50 | 400K | — |
| GPT-6.1 TerraOpenAI | $1.00 | $5.00 | 1M | — |
| Claude Haiku 4.5Anthropic | $1.00 | $5.00 | 200K | — |
| Gemini 4 HydrogenGoogle | $1.50 | $7.50 | 1M | — |
| GPT-4.1OpenAI | $2.00 | $8.00 | 1M | — |
| Gemini 3.5 FlashGoogle | $1.50 | $9.00 | 1M | — |
| GPT-5OpenAI | $1.25 | $10.00 | 400K | — |
| GPT-5.1OpenAI | $1.25 | $10.00 | 400K | — |
| Gemini 4 CarbonGoogle | $2.00 | $10.00 | 1M | — |
| Gemini 4 ArgonGoogle | $2.00 | $10.00 | 1M | — |
| GPT-6 SolOpenAI | $2.00 | $10.00 | 1M | — |
| GPT-6.1 SolOpenAI | $2.00 | $10.00 | 1M | — |
| Kimi K3.1 ProMoonshot | $2.00 | $10.00 | 1M | Open |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5Anthropic | $2.00 | $10.00 | 1M | — |
| Claude Sonnet 5Anthropic | $2.00 | $10.00 | 1M | — |
| GPT-4oOpenAI | $2.50 | $10.00 | 128K | — |
| GPT-5.6 TerraOpenAI | $2.00 | $12.00 | 1M | — |
| GPT-5.2OpenAI | $1.75 | $14.00 | 400K | — |
| Kimi K3Moonshot | $3.00 | $15.00 | 1M | Open |
| Claude Sonnet 4.6Anthropic | $3.00 | $15.00 | 1M | — |
| Claude Sonnet 4.5Anthropic | $3.00 | $15.00 | 200K | — |
| Claude Opus 5.5Anthropic | $4.00 | $20.00 | 1M | — |
| GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI | $4.00 | $20.00 | 1M | — |
| Muse WonderMeta | $4.00 | $20.00 | 1M | — |
| Claude Opus 5Anthropic | $5.00 | $25.00 | 1M | — |
| Claude Opus 4.7Anthropic | $5.00 | $25.00 | 1M | — |
| Claude Opus 4.8Anthropic | $5.00 | $25.00 | 1M | — |
| Claude Opus 4.5Anthropic | $5.00 | $25.00 | 200K | — |
| Claude Opus 4.6Anthropic | $5.00 | $25.00 | 1M | — |
| Claude Fable 5.2Anthropic | $8.00 | $40.00 | 1M | — |
| Claude Mythos 5.2Anthropic | $8.00 | $40.00 | — | — |
| GPT-6 AstraOpenAI | $10.00 | $50.00 | 1M | — |
| Claude Fable 5.1Anthropic | $10.00 | $50.00 | 1M | — |
| Claude Fable 5Anthropic | $10.00 | $50.00 | 1M | — |
| O3 ProOpenAI | $20.00 | $80.00 | 200K | — |
| GPT-5 ProOpenAI | $15.00 | $120.00 | 400K | — |
How it is measured
Early detection requires a retained source artefact: an API or catalogue listing, maker code, or a direct maker statement. The clock starts when Signal Forge records that evidence, never at an earlier publication date. Posts, rumours and forecasts remain in the timeline and do not count as detection; a later release does not validate an earlier forecast. Lead time counts complete days before release. Only models detected at least one full day early enter the median. Prices and context windows use the latest source values.
Data: CC BY 4.0